Where did all the starships go?
A Datawrapper analysis delves into ~210,000 speculative fiction titles, revealing a significant decline in classic sci-fi keywords like 'space' and 'planets' since the 1960s, contrasted with a sharp rise in fantasy terms such as 'dragons' and 'magic'. This data-driven exploration confirms many readers' anecdotal observations about changing bookstore aisles, sparking Hacker News debate on the methodology and underlying cultural shifts. The discussion explores whether sci-fi itself is waning or merely evolving its linguistic identifiers, and the socio-cultural reasons behind genre popularity.
The Lowdown
The Datawrapper blog post, "Where did all the starships go?", uses an extensive dataset to visualize a perceived shift in speculative fiction. Author Jonathan Muth investigates the decline of traditional science fiction themes in novel titles compared to the rise of fantasy, driven by his personal observation of shrinking sci-fi sections in bookstores.
- Muth observed shrinking sci-fi sections in bookstores and a rise in fantasy.
- He analyzed ~210,000 English novel titles from the Internet Speculative Fiction Database (ISFDB) by counting keyword frequencies.
- Classic sci-fi keywords like "Space," "Mars," "Planet/s," and "Moon/s" peaked in the 1950s-60s and have steadily declined, with "Space" dropping from over 2.5% to under 0.5% of titles.
- Fantasy keywords such as "Dragon/s," "Magic(al)," and "Witch/es" showed an opposite trend, accelerating sharply after 2000, aligning with major commercial successes like Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings.
- Some terms like "Dark(ness)," "War/s," and "Death" remained remarkably stable across decades, being genre-agnostic.
- Muth initially explored more complex tagging methods (ISFDB tags, LLMs) but found them unreliable, ultimately opting for a simpler, effective word-frequency analysis in titles.
The author concludes that while classic space opera may have receded, sci-fi themes are diversifying and integrating into the mainstream, even if finding "old-school stuff" now requires more deliberate searching. The analysis provides quantitative confirmation of a tangible shift in genre representation through title keywords.
The Gossip
Pessimism's Progression and Planetary Pictures
Discussion revolved around societal optimism. Many argued that the post-1960s decline in space-themed sci-fi titles correlated with a loss of public optimism about the future and space exploration. Key scientific discoveries, like the barren landscapes of Mars and Venus revealed by early probes, are cited as major contributors to this shift, dampening the "real hope" of finding intelligent life in our solar system and leading to disillusionment with the space program.
Titular Transformations and Textual Truths
A significant point of contention was whether the decline in explicit sci-fi keywords in titles truly reflects a genre decline or merely a stylistic evolution. Commenters suggested that modern sci-fi titles might have become more abstract or less literal, making a simple keyword analysis insufficient to capture the breadth of contemporary science fiction. Examples were given of current sci-fi novels with titles that don't overtly scream "space opera" but are deeply rooted in sci-fi themes.
Fantasy's Flourish and Fiction's Future
While acknowledging the observed trend, some commenters pushed back on the idea that sci-fi is "dying," highlighting a vibrant contemporary output of space opera and science fiction from various authors. This theme also touched on the historical context of fantasy, suggesting its recent surge might be due to a release from the long shadow cast by foundational authors like Tolkien, allowing for a broader commercial appeal. The conversation also noted similar genre shifts in other media like anime.