Sub-$200 Lidar Could Reshuffle Auto Sensor Economics
MicroVision's new solid-state lidar aims for a sub-$200 production cost, dramatically undercutting current prices and potentially making advanced 3D sensing viable for mainstream driver-assistance systems. This technological leap challenges the long-held skepticism of figures like Elon Musk, who famously dismissed lidar as 'a fool's errand' for autonomous vehicles. The potential for such affordable lidar has sparked significant discussion on Hacker News, contemplating a future where widespread adoption could revolutionize both automotive safety and broader robotic applications.
The Lowdown
MicroVision, a solid-state sensor technology company, claims to have designed an automotive lidar sensor capable of reaching production pricing below US $200, with a long-term goal of $100. This drastic price reduction, less than half of current typical prices and a mere fraction of older mechanical systems, is poised to fundamentally alter the economics of autonomous vehicle design and bring lidar within reach of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), rather than limiting it to high-end autonomous programs.
- Dramatic Cost Reduction: MicroVision's targets are a significant leap from the $10,000-$20,000 range for comparable mechanical lidars, and even $80,000-$100,000 for systems from a decade ago.
- Solid-State Advantage: The Movia S uses a phased-array system for beam steering, designed for high-volume manufacturing, vibration tolerance, and specific automotive requirements.
- Challenging Musk's Stance: The sub-$200 price point directly addresses one of Elon Musk's primary objections to lidar, weakening the argument that cameras and radar alone are sufficient for autonomous driving.
- System Integration Nuances: While solid-state lidars have a smaller field of view (e.g., 180 degrees vs. 360 degrees for mechanical units), requiring multiple sensors per vehicle, the total system cost can still be lower. This shifts complexity from individual sensors to system-level integration.
- ADAS Augmentation: Rather than replacing existing camera and radar systems, low-cost lidar is expected to augment them, providing superior 3D detection and tracking to enhance safety and performance in challenging environments.
- Industry Trends: MicroVision is part of a broader trend toward solid-state lidar, with other companies also pursuing lower costs, but MicroVision's explicit focus on production-volume pricing below $200 distinguishes its claims.
- Performance Metrics: The article highlights the importance of evaluating lidar performance using clear safety metrics and perception benchmarks (like mAP), alongside cost targets.
Ultimately, if solid-state lidar can reliably achieve these low price points, the debate among automakers will shift from cost objections to technical and strategic considerations regarding its integration, potentially making lidar a routine component of vehicle safety systems.
The Gossip
Lidar's Lowering Lure
Commenters expressed significant excitement and optimism about the potential market disruption caused by sub-$200 lidar. Many envisioned a 'cambrian explosion' of new applications beyond automotive, including DIY projects and widespread integration of spatial awareness into robotics. The anticipated cost curve drop is seen as a game-changer, potentially refining both hardware and software stacks.
Camera vs. Lidar Conundrum
A central theme revolved around the long-standing debate concerning sensor suites for autonomous driving, particularly the efficacy of camera-only systems (like Tesla's) versus those incorporating lidar. Many users strongly advocated for lidar, viewing it as essential for safety and criticizing camera-only approaches as 'braindead' or inherently less reliable for achieving truly safe self-driving capabilities.
Driving Dynamics Discussion
Several commenters shared real-world experiences with Waymo's autonomous vehicles, which utilize lidar technology. These accounts generally reported positive and 'delightful' experiences, highlighting Waymo's ability to navigate complex urban environments, including difficult terrain and mixed traffic. While some minor quirks in highway driving were noted, the overall sentiment indicated confidence in lidar-equipped systems' capabilities.