Time Is Different
The author cynically dissects the persistent "this time is different" fallacy in tech, drawing stark parallels between past overhyped fads like 3D TV and NFTs and the current fervent enthusiasm for AI. It cautions against a "winner takes all" mentality, suggesting AI will be but one technology in a diverse future, a perspective often lauded on HN for its skeptical, historical grounding. This piece resonates by questioning the hype cycle many on Hacker News observe and often critique.
The Lowdown
Terence Eden's piece, "This Time Is Different," offers a skeptical look at the cyclical nature of technological hype, particularly challenging the current fervent enthusiasm surrounding Artificial Intelligence. The author contends that the tech industry, often propelled by the same vocal proponents, repeatedly declares new innovations as uniquely transformative, only for many to fall short of their lofty promises.
- The article opens by listing a litany of past technologies and trends—from 3D TV and Beanie Babies to Blockchain, Metaverse, and NFTs—that were once hailed as the next big thing but largely underwhelmed.
- Eden notes that the "same dudes" who championed these past fads are now equally zealous about Artificial Intelligence, using the familiar refrain, "This time is different!"
- He directly refutes this assertion, quoting Sir John Templeton's investment wisdom: "This time is different," when it's a repeat situation, contains "among the four most costly words in the annals of investing."
- The author acknowledges that some listed technologies are still functional or useful in some form, but maintains that they did not achieve the universal dominance predicted.
- He posits that AI, while undoubtedly a component of the future, will likely be just one of many coexisting technologies, pushing back against a "winner takes all" ideology that he deems unsustainable and unrealistic.
- A Terry Pratchett quote about Ankh-Morpork's way of absorbing invaders is used to illustrate how new forces are often assimilated rather than achieving outright conquest.
In essence, Eden's piece serves as a timely reminder for technological skepticism, urging readers to view current AI hype through the lens of history and resist the allure of the "this time is different" narrative.