The main thing about P2P meth is that there's so much of it (2022)
This data-rich article investigates the 'new meth' phenomenon, debunking theories of chemically altered drugs causing increased psychosis. It meticulously analyzes DEA data on synthesis methods, purity, potency, and usage trends to conclude that overwhelming quantity and purity, rather than a sinister chemical change, are driving the current crisis. Hacker News found the rigorous, data-driven approach to a complex societal problem particularly compelling.
The Lowdown
The article delves into the dramatic shift in methamphetamine production and its societal impact, specifically addressing claims that 'new meth' made via P2P synthesis is chemically different and causes users to 'go crazy.' It systematically reviews available data to challenge this notion, arguing that increased availability and purity are the primary drivers of the current crisis.
- Shift in Production: Post-2006/2008 pseudoephedrine bans, meth synthesis moved from ephedrine-based to P2P-based, becoming dominant by 2012.
- Isomer Analysis: Early P2P meth was a mix of d-meth (euphoric) and l-meth (less potent), but by 2019, street meth was almost exclusively d-meth, often 95% pure.
- Contaminant Theory Debunked: The article finds no evidence of increased harmful contaminants. P2P synthesis methods have varied, but purity is higher than ever, and a primary suspected contaminant (lead acetate) was less used during a period of rising issues, contradicting the 'bad meth' theory.
- Explosion in Quantity: Data from border seizures, sewage analysis (Seattle usage doubled in 2017), and usage surveys (heavy users tripled 2015-2019) all indicate a massive increase in meth supply and consumption.
- Price Drop & Overdoses: Meth prices have plummeted, while overdose deaths have skyrocketed, despite meth being difficult to overdose on, implying extreme usage levels.
Ultimately, the author concludes that the idea of chemically altered meth causing psychosis is unlikely. Instead, the sheer, unprecedented quantity and high purity of d-meth available mean more people are using more of it, leading to a 'quantity has a quality all its own' scenario that explains the intensified societal problems.
The Gossip
Prohibition's Perverse Outcomes
Commenters widely critiqued the ineffectiveness of pseudoephedrine bans, arguing they failed to curb meth production and instead led to perverse outcomes. Many pointed out that such regulations merely shifted production methods, drove down prices, and increased supply, while simultaneously making legitimate cold medicine harder for law-abiding citizens to access. This highlights a broader concern about government policies failing to anticipate complex second- and third-order effects.
Potency Ponderings: Contaminants vs. Quantity
While the article concludes that sheer quantity and purity, not chemical contaminants, explain the 'new meth' crisis, several commenters debated this. Some suggested that even a small percentage of unknown impurities could have significant effects on users, warranting further investigation into the 'fundamental difference' theory. Others reinforced the author's perspective, arguing that the documented explosion in d-meth availability and extreme usage adequately explains the observed problems, making complex contaminant theories unnecessary.
Legislative Levers: Legalization & Its Limits
A spirited discussion arose concerning the potential benefits and drawbacks of drug legalization and regulation. Proponents argued that government control over purity and supply could undermine cartels and improve public health outcomes. Conversely, critics cited the US opioid crisis as a cautionary tale, where regulated access to painkillers led to widespread addiction and death, arguing that making drugs easier to obtain inevitably leads to increased harm, regardless of regulatory oversight.