We need more goat sacrifices

Adam Mastroianni controversially suggests that before enacting any major social policy, we should perform grotesque rituals, like sacrificing a goat. This isn't for divine appeasement, but to instill procedural humility, acknowledging our profound ignorance about what actually works in the complex realm of human behavior and social change. He backs this up with a litany of examples where well-funded programs, from both political spectra, have demonstrably failed.

• Widespread Failures: The article presents numerous instances of programs yielding no discernible positive effect: multi-billion dollar school improvement grants, university diversity officers, aid for Afghan women, "One Laptop Per Child," and vaccine persuasion campaigns. Failures aren't limited to one side of the political aisle, with Medicaid work requirements, marriage counseling, and abstinence-only sex education also proving ineffective.
• The Iron Law: Mastroianni introduces Peter Rossi's satirical "Iron Law of Evaluation," which posits that large social programs tend to have zero net impact, better evaluations find null effects, and programs designed to change people are most likely to fail. Even when Rossi tried to retract his laws, he admitted we still don't know if programs are "worth anything."
• Elusive Success: Truly effective and reliable social interventions are hard to find, with examples like the Earned Income Tax Credit and plain cigarette packaging showing dubious or even counterproductive results upon deeper scrutiny.
• The Illusion of Control: The author traces this systemic failure to a human tendency—the "illusion of control." We overestimate our ability to influence outcomes, leading policymakers and philanthropists to believe their intentions guarantee success, often without bothering to check if their interventions actually work. Examples include NSF-funded STEM projects lacking evaluation, DHS not defining goals for fentanyl interdiction, and a $100 million donation to NYU medical school failing to shift student demographics or specialty choices.
• Stages of Grief: Mastroianni outlines three common reactions to failed interventions: bargaining (e.g., "just give people money"—which also often fails), denial (the "no true Scotsman" fallacy, blaming implementation over the idea), and unproductive acceptance (resignation that change is impossible).
• Alchemical Stage: He concludes that social sciences are still in an "alchemical stage," akin to early medicine or physics—we lack fundamental understanding. Instead of despair, we must embrace this ignorance, rigorously test our hypotheses, and humbly plant seeds for future generations to harvest, rather than pretending we possess all the answers now.

Ultimately, the piece argues for a radical shift toward experimental humility, demanding that we rigorously evaluate interventions and accept that our best intentions often don't translate into desired outcomes, pushing us to constantly question, test, and learn.